COVID-19 : Second wave of covid-19 may peak in May, say IIT Kanpur scientists

“The current case deathrate (CFR) for the country is approximately 1.2%. However, with the dramatic increase within the infection count, the healthcare goes to be overstretched and thus can cause a rise in CFR," said Mahendra K. Verma, professor, department of physics, IIT Kanpur.

COVID-19 : Second wave of covid-19 may peak in May, say IIT Kanpur scientists
COVID-19 : Second wave of covid-19 may peak in May, say IIT Kanpur scientists

The number of active covid-19 cases in India during the second wave is predicted to peak in May. The daily infection count is predicted to exceed 3.5 lakh cases, consistent with a mathematical model developed by a team of scientists from Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur.

The estimates come against the backdrop of daily covid-19 cases nearing 3 lakh on Wednesday. The IIT scientists have also predicted that the case deathrate which has been low in India, will rise because the infection reaches rural areas of Bihar, UP and West Bengal ; that have inadequate health infrastructure.

This follows the super-spreader events like political rallies and therefore the Kumbh Mela.Based on preliminary analysis using the available data and therefore the susceptible-infected-removed or SIR model, the scientists have forecasted the second wave to peak in mid-May with the daily infection count exceeding 3.5 lakh. An SIR model is an epidemiological model that computes the theoretical number of individuals infected with a contagious illness during a closed population over time.

“The current case deathrate (CFR) for the country is approximately 1.2%. However, with the dramatic increase within the infection count, the healthcare goes to be overstretched and thus can cause a rise in CFR," said Mahendra K. Verma, professor, department of physics, IIT Kanpur.

“Data shows that the second wave has reached the agricultural area. this might cause devastation considering poor healthcare infrastructure in these regions. The above observations suggest that the flattening of the second wave requires strong administrative intervention and people’s participation," Verma said.

The pandemic has spread intensely across all states, the study said, is clear from the effective reproduction number R0. R0 is that the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual. this suggests R0 may be a measure of virus transmission, or the amount of persons each infected person will infect on a mean . “Major disconcerting issue is Rt being on the brink of 2 in a number of the populous states, like Uttar Pradesh , Bihar, and West Bengal. The exponential rate of growth for the second wave is quite double of the primary wave. this is often the rationale for dramatic increase in numbers. The alarming issue is that we are on the rapid climb phase for the last four weeks," said Verma.

According to Union health ministry data, 2,95,041 new cases were registered within the last 24 hours. the ten states of Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Karnataka, Kerala, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu , Gujarat and Rajasthan reported 76.32% of the new cases. Maharashtra has reported the very best daily new cases at 62,097, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 29,574 cases, and Delhi which reported 28,395 new cases, the govt said. India’s total active caseload has reached 21,57,538. It now comprises 13.82% of the country's total positive cases. A net incline of 1,25,561 cases recorded from the entire active caseload within the last 24 hours.

Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala cumulatively account for 60.86% of India’s total active cases, shows Union health ministry data. Over 2,023 deaths were reported within the last 24 hours. Ten states account for 82.6% of the new deaths. Maharashtra saw the utmost casualties (519), followed by Delhi with 277 daily deaths.

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